U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week the nation’s crude oil production will expand this year by only 160,000 barrels per day after record output of 13.3 million b/d in December. EIA said that level won’t be reached again until February 2025 after production fell to 12.6 million b/d in January as extreme weather affected production. Output is expected to rebound this month to almost 13.3 million b/d before falling through the remainder of 2024. Production is forecast at 13.21 million b/d in 2024 before increasing to 13.49 million b/d in 2025.
Brent crude oil spot price increased in January – averaging $80 per barrel – because of heightened uncertainty about global oil shipments after attacks to vessels in the Red Sea. EIA said Feb. 6, “Although we expect crude oil prices will rise into the mid-$80/b range in the coming months, we expect downward price pressures will emerge in 2024Q2 as global oil inventories generally increase through the rest of our forecast.”
EIA said Brent crude oil spot price is $82 per barrel for both 2023 and 2024 and $79/b in 2025. Retail price of gasoline is $3.52 in 2023, $3.31 in 2024 and $3.31 in 2025.