U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its latest short-term energy outlook that it expects average Brent crude oil spot price will increase to $89 per barrel for 2024 after $82 per barrel in 2023. Forecast average for 2024Q2 is $90 per barrel. EIA said, “This increase reflects our expectation of strong global oil inventory draws during this quarter and ongoing geopolitical risks.”
Average retail price for gasoline, according to EIA, is expected to be $3.60 per gallon for each of 2024 and 2025 – up from the previous forecasts March 12 of $3.50 per gallon for 2024 and $3.40 per gallon for 2025.
EIA added April 9, “The recent extension of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts adds to upward price pressure right at a time of the year when oil demand typically increases because of the spring and summer driving seasons in the Northern Hemisphere. The combination of flat production and rising consumption causes our forecast of global oil inventories to fall by more than 0.9 million b/d in 2024Q2, which we expect will add upward pressure to oil prices.”
EIA expects global production of liquid fuels to increase by more than 0.8 million b/d in 2024 – slowing from 1.8 million b/d increase in 2023.