U.S. Energy Information Administration this week repeated its forecast of declining crude oil prices in 2026 and 2027. After an estimated average of $69 per barrel in 2025, EIA said Feb. 10 in its short-term energy outlook that the price is expected to average $58 per barrel this year and $53/b in 2027. EIA said Tuesday that rising production growth will outpace demand and lead to inventory builds. Weather-related events and escalating tensions with Iran will put upward pressure on prices.
U.S. crude oil production is expected to remain elevated in 2026, but ease in 2027 as prices weaken. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.6 million b/d in 2026 (flat with 2025, up from 13.2 million in 2024) before slipping to 13.3 million b/d in 2027. Lower oil prices are expected to pressure upstream investment, limiting the pace of production growth.
EIA forecasts that global oil inventory builds will average 3.1 million b/d in 2026 compared with an average build of 2.7 million b/d in 2025. It is expected to decline to 2.7 million b/d in 2027.
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