The Short Term Energy Outlook, published in April by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, held that the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on energy markets are still evolving. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes in energy fuel supply and demand patterns. Crude oil prices, in particular, have fallen significantly since the beginning of 2020, largely driven by the economic contraction caused by COVID-19 and a sudden increase in crude oil supply following the suspension of previously agreed upon production cuts among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries. Similar uncertainties persist across EIA’s outlook for other energy sources, including natural gas and electricity.
EIA forecasts that the United States will return to being a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and remain a net importer in most months through the end of the forecast period. This is a result of higher net imports of crude oil and lower net exports of petroleum products. Net crude oil imports are expected to increase because, as U.S. crude oil production declines, there will be fewer barrels available for export. On the petroleum product side, net exports will be lowest in the third quarter of 2020, when U.S. refinery runs are expected to decline significantly.