U.S. crude oil production will reach a low of about 10.7 million barrels per day in June – a two-year low – before starting to slowly recover, according to Oslo-based energy research firm Rystad Energy. After reaching 12.855 million b/d in March, U.S. monthly production is not likely to exceed 11.7 million b/d before 2022. Production will recover somewhat this fall and reach 11.1 million b/d in December. The forecast assumes WTI price of $30 for 2020 and $39 for 2021.
Artem Abramov, who directs Rystad’s shale research, said, “The recovery will not be distributed evenly across major U.S. oil basins… We expect the Permian and Gulf of Mexico (along with Alaska) to gain market share throughout 2020 and 2021. Yet even in the Permian Basin, we might need to wait until 2021 or a better oil price before the basin can again achieve its 2020Q1 production record of close to 5 million barrels per day.”