U.S. Energy Information Administration said this week that Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline significantly in the coming months – falling from an average of $71 per barrel in July to $58 per barrel in 4Q and about $50 per barrel in early 2026. In its short-term energy outlook issued Tuesday, EIA said, “The price forecast is driven largely by more oil inventory builds following OPEC+ members’ decision to accelerate the pace of production increases. We now expect global oil inventory builds will average more than 2 million b/d in 2025Q4 and 2026Q1… Low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers.”
EIA forecasts Brent oil prices will average $51 per barrel next year – down from its forecast of $58 per barrel last month.
EIA also said it expects increases in well productivity to push U.S. crude oil production to an all-time high near $13.6 million b/d in December. As crude prices fall, EIA forecasts U.S. producers will accelerate decreases in drilling and well completions so that U.S. production will decline to 13.1 million b/d by 2026Q4. On an annual basis, EIA expects oil production to average 13.4 million b/d in 2025 and 13.3 million b/d in 2026.
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