U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week it expects Brent crude oil prices to remain near $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2024 because of “voluntary OPEC+ crude oil production cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks.” Prices are expected to fall to $85 per barrel in 2025 as global oil production growth increases ($88/b for fullyear 2024).
EIA expects global production of petroleum and other liquid fuels will increase by 1 million b/d in 2024 – slowing from growth of 1.8 million b/d in 2023. And EIA forecasts of retail gasoline prices in U.S. will average near $3.70 per gallon from April through September – similar to the same period last year ($3.50/gal each for fullyear 2024 and 2025).
In its short term energy outlook May 7, EIA also said U.S. crude oil production is expected to be 13.2 million b/d in 2024 and 13.7 million b/d in 2025 after 12.9 million b/d in 2023.