U.S. Energy Information Administration this week lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil spot price for 2024 to $74 per barrel – down 8.3 percent from its April 11 forecast of $81. Also Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA lowered the forecast price for 2023 to $79 from $85 last month. Price fell at closing May 4 to $73 per barrel from an average of $85 per barrel in April.
OPEC and partner countries announced last month production cuts of 1.2 million b/d through yearend 2023, and crude oil prices rose on expectations of tighter oil supplies. “However,” Oil & Gas Journal reported, “continued concerns about weaker global economic conditions, risks to the global banking sector, and persistent inflation outweighed the initial rise in oil prices, sending oil prices lower.”
EIA expects global liquid fuels production to increase by 1.5 million b/d in 2023 compared with 2022 due primarily to growth in non-OPEC producers.