U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week it expects U.S. crude oil production to decline next year to 13.5 million barrels per day. That’s about 100,000 barrels per day less than in 2025. This forecast follows four years of rising crude oil output to 13.6 million b/d this year. Production increased by 0.3 million b/d in 2024 to 13.2 million b/d and by 0.4 million b/d in 2025 mostly because of growth in Permian Basin in west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
EIA forecasts that modest increases in production in 2026 in Alaska, federal Gulf of America and Permian Basin will be offset by declines in other parts of the U.S.
EIA forecasts that WTI crude oil price will average $65 per barrel in 2025 and $51 per barrel in 2026 – both lower than the 2024 average of $77 per barrel. Brent crude oil spot price in the forecast released Friday are $69 per barrel for 2025 and $55 per barrel for 2026 after $81 per barrel for 2024.
EIA said price declines will be limited by OPEC+ production policy and China’s continued inventory builds.