U.S. Energy Information Administration this week raised its forecast for spot price of Brent crude oil to $88 per barrel for the second quarter of 2024. That’s up $4 per barrel from Feb. 6 forecast. And EIA said Tuesday the forecast price for fullyear 2024 is $87 per barrel compared to $82 per barrel as forecast last month ($85 for 2025). The increase reflects the extension of OPEC+ production cuts through 2024Q2 – plus an additional voluntary production decrease by Russia.
EIA also reduced its forecast for global oil production growth in 2024, and the lower growth contributes to significant global oil inventory declines in the forecast for 2Q (down by 900,000 b/d in 2Q).
Non-OPEC+ production for 2024 is expected to increase by 1.5 million b/d primarily from U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana. U.S. crude oil production was 12.9 million b/d last year and is forecast at 13.2 million b/d this year and 13.7 million b/d in 2025.