U.S. Energy Information Administration recently reduced its forecast for Brent crude oil spot price through the end of next year. EIA said Oct. 8 it expects the price to average $81 per barrel in 2024 ($83/b in previous forecast) and $78 per barrel in 2025 (down 7.7 percent from $84 per barrel predicted earlier for next year). EIA added, “Lower crude oil prices largely reflect a reduction for global oil demand growth in 2025… Although we reduced our crude oil price forecast, crude oil prices have risen in recent days because of escalating conflict in the Middle East, raising the possibility of oil supply disruptions and further crude oil price increases.”
Henry Hub natural gas spot price rose by 15 percent to $2.28 per MMBtu in September, and EIA expects the Henry Hub price to continue rising to around $2.80 per MMBtu in 4Q and $3.10 per MMBtu in 2025 as liquefied natural gas exports – a component of total natural gas demand – increase with the addition of capacity.
Brent crude oil spot price averaged $74/b in September – a decrease of $6/b from August. EIA said, “Prices dropped as concerns over global oil demand growth outweighed reductions in oil inventories and OPEC+ members’ decision to delay production increases until December 2024. However, after recent military actions involving Israel, Lebanon and Iran, the Brent spot price increased to $79/b Oct. 4 – up 11 percent from the previous week.”