U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday it expects Brent crude oil price will average $82 per barrel in 2024 – about the same as 2023 – then decline to $79 per barrel in 2025. EIA said production growth will be slightly higher in 2025 than demand growth, resulting in a modest build in inventories and downward pressure on oil prices. EIA said, “We expect global oil inventories will build over the final three quarters of 2024 as slowing demand growth once again is outpaced by rising supply growth.”
After U.S. crude oil production increased to a record high in 2023, EIA forecasts it will grow more slowly in 2024 and 2025. EIA said U.S. oil production is expected to average 13.2 million b/d in 2024 and 13.4 million b/d in 2025 – both records. Crude oil growth in lower 48 primarily will come from Permian Basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.