U.S. shale production will peak at about 14.5 million barrels per day around 2030, according to a forecast by Rystad Energy, with production from the Permian Basin as the dominant source of U.S. oil supply. Rystad said U.S. light, tight oil represented less than one percent of world oil supply nine years ago, but it represents almost 10 percent of total world oil supply now. Rystad’s forecast assumes base-case prices of $55 per barrel in 2019, $54 in 2020 and 2021, and $57 in 2022. Oil & Gas Journal said, “Most analysts expect the Permian Basin will be the dominant part of 2040 U.S. oil supply.” Sonia Mlada Passos of Rystad told the Journal, “In Rystad Energy’s base-case price scenario, we expect Permian’s production to grow to around 7.5 million barrels per day by 2040.”
Rystad said it expects rising production in Permian Basin will be met by adequate takeaway capacity because numerous pipelines are proposed.
