IHS Markit vice chairman Daniel Yergin said recently that global oil demand likely will take at least another year to return to pre-pandemic levels. Shale production will remain relatively unchanged at about 11 million b/d until late 2021 before it starts rising, IHS Markit said, and it will increase at a much more moderate pace. Asked in an interview Dec. 28 if U.S. oil production could return to growth of 1.5 million b/d, the Pulitzer Prize-winning Yergin said, “Let me give you a very simple answer. The answer is no.”
International Energy Agency said continued low demand for jet fuel will account for 80 percent of next year’s 3.1 million b/d gap in oil demand compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Scott D. Sheffield, president and CEO of Irving-based Permian operator Pioneer Natural Resources, made similar comments this week at a Goldman Sachs investor webcast. “I really don’t see much increase in the Permian Basin or the U.S. shale over the next several years,” Sheffield said. He predicted more industry consolidation and said Eagle Ford in south Texas and Bakken in North Dakota “may never see growth again.”