U.S. Energy Information Administration has increased its forecast for the nation’s crude oil production this year. EIA said last week in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook that crude oil production was a record 13.6 million barrels per day in July and is forecast to be 13.53 million b/d for 2025 and 13.51 million b/d for 2026. The 2026 forecast is 0.2 million b/d above EIA’s September forecast.
The July production was higher than estimated (latest estimate was 13.44 million b/d), and EIA also raised its forecast for crude oil production in Gulf of America. U.S. production was 13.23 million b/d last year. Reuters reported, “The anticipated surge in U.S. output defies growing concerns that the oil market is oversupplied.”
EIA’s report issued Oct. 7 added, “We expect global oil inventories to rise through 2026, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months.” EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $62 per barrel in 2025Q4 and $52/b in 2026. West Texas Intermediate crude prices in U.S. are expected to average about $65 per barrel this year.
Leave a Reply