Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, an analytics company, announced March 24 an updated global oil outlook that lifts its Brent forecast, reflecting impacts from the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, near zero flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a record G7 SPR release, and expectations for a muted U.S. production response. EIR now expects Brent crude to average $95 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and $100 in 2027, due to accelerating global stock draws and an unresponsive supply outlook. Al Salazar, Director of Research at EIR, said, “The world has an oil flow problem that is draining stocks. Whenever that oil flow problem is resolved, the world is left with low stocks. That’s what drives our oil price outlook higher for longer. With consolidation and stricter capital discipline reshaping the shale patch, we expect a much more restrained U.S. supply response than in previous $100/bbl environments.”
Key takeaways:
- Brent crude price forecasts were upgraded significantly with EIR projecting an average of $95 per barrel through 2026 and $100 per barrel in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for 3 months.
- Each month of constrained Strait of Hormuz flows changes the EIR outlook by approximately $10-$15/bbl, highlighting the historic significance of the disruption and high uncertainty on duration.
- Even with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices at $90–$100 per barrel, U.S. oil producers are not expected to materially increase output. EIR forecasts liquids output to grow 370 thousand barrels per day by exit-2026 and 580 thousand barrels per day by exit-2027, reflecting drilling to production lags, industry consolidation and disciplined investment.
- Global oil demand growth for 2026 has been reduced to approximately 500 thousand barrels per day, down from 1.0 million barrels per day, as higher energy prices and anticipated supply disruptions weigh on global economic activity.
- Cumulative global oil stock draws are estimated at roughly 1 billion barrels through 2027, with non-OECD inventories, particularly in Asia, absorbing nearly half of the impact.
- The 60-day Jones Act waiver may improve short-term U.S. shipping flexibility, but its overall impact on global oil prices is limited, with broader market forces remaining the primary driver.
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